t’s important to remember that odds reflect probabilities and not certainties.  Each team has a probability of winning, drawing and losing. 

The first topic addresses the question, “Has the team, that we are researching, been over-achieving, under-achieving, or performing as expected in terms of results?”  To do this, we will work out the number of points a team is expected to win from the last 6 matches.  This is different from just looking at whether the team should have won, drawn or lost individual matches. 

We always need to remember that there is a large element of luck in football.   This is why the bookmakers present odds.  Each team has a probability of winning, drawing and losing. 

The second topic addresses the question, “Has the team been lucky or unlucky or has their luck been just about right?” 

In this analysis, I will look at home form for the home team and away form for the away team.