Try my Advanced Football Poisson-based Calculators
My name is Artimus Paint. I am the author of "Directional Trading on Horse Racing".
I have reverse engineered the Betfair algorithm for football odds.
I am sharing ALL the tools, that I use for trading and betting.
Pricing a Match is Essential for any Bettor or Trader
Proof that I Reverse Engineered the Betfair Algorithm
Save Time - The Maths is Done For You
As well as being a trader, I am a mathematician, statistician, and data analyst.
I have created many calculators for my own use.
For the first time, I am sharing my calculators.
I've Done the Maths - So You Don't Have To!
Calculator Instructions
The calculator below gives accurate results both pre-match and in-play, as long as the match score is 0-0.
Proof that Football Odds Follow a Predictable Pattern
This calculator doesn't know who the teams are, whether the match is a league, cup, international or friendly.
Incredibly, it can generate a set of odds for correct scores and over/under 2.5 goals that are almost identical to the Betfair odds.
It would be impossible to for a calculator to do this, if the Betfair odds didn't follow a predictable pattern.
Finding Value
If you can price a match, you have the potential to find value.
If Man City are playing Arsenal, we all know that Man City would be favourite.
That is not the issue.
The issue is could you estimate the exact odds and feel comfortable that your odds are in the ballpark?
My Poisson-based calculators will do all that work for you.
No More Confusion
When you don't know what the real odds should be, you feel confused.
The aim of my calculators is to remove the confusion, so that you can get on with your form analysis.
Poisson-Based Calculators with My Secret Formula...
You Won't Find My Secret Formula Anywhere Else....Because I Invented It
Poisson Distribution Explained
The Poisson distribution was derived by French mathematician Siméon Denis Poisson.
You've probably heard of a normal distribution. A Poisson distribution is another type of distribution.
The Poisson distribution is based on each team's expected goals and attack and defence strength.
The Poisson distribution shows the probability of a given number of goals occurring in a fixed interval of time.
Once you have put the team names into the demo calculator, you will see a Poisson distribution graph when you scroll down to the bottom of the calculator.
Poisson Calculator Instructions
Poisson NEEDS DATA
You can use up to 5 years of data. I usually use as much data as is relavant. This may seem counter-intuitive, as most people believe that recent form is most important.
Many research papers have concluded that Poisson has shown a profit.
All of these researchers used a massive amount of data and none of them took recent form into consideration.
Recent Form
Once you have put the team names into the calculator, a tab will appear at the top.
Using the tabs, you can look at recent form by looking at:
- -the past year's statistics
- -the last 6 matches (home and away games)
- -the last 6 match statistics
For the last 6 matches, teams are given a rating that is based on the expected number of points and the actual points won. The expected points is based on probabilities, derived from average bookmakers' odds for each match.
Once you get used to looking at long-term form and recent form separately, you will see that the bookmakers' odds are based mainly on long-term performance of teams.
My Secret Formula
Occasionally, the Poisson formula overestimates the number of goals. This is usually when very weak teams are involved in the match.
I created a formula that solves this issue.
When you put the 0-0 (that you see on Betfair) into the calculator, you will get a list of odds that are more in line with the real odds.
Price a Match Quickly and Easily with My Secret Formula...
OVER 18 ONLY
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